Turkey’s 2020 electricity-related CO₂ footprint and carbon emission factor showing the increase from 2019 due to reduced hydropower and higher natural gas generation.

Türkiye’s 2020 Electricity-Related Carbon Footprint and Carbon Emission Factor

 

DID EMISSIONS REALLY DECREASE DURING THE PANDEMIC?

In 2019, Türkiye’s electricity-related carbon emissions amounted to 132 million tons of CO₂, while the carbon emission factor of electricity generation stood at 0.437 kg CO₂/kWh. In other words, for every 1 kWh of electricity consumed, approximately 437 grams of CO₂ were released into the atmosphere.

With 2020 being dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic, it was frequently claimed that carbon emissions decreased, air quality improved, and the climate benefited. But did electricity-related carbon emissions—one of the main drivers of climate change—actually decline in Türkiye during the pandemic year?

What was Türkiye’s electricity emission factor in 2020?


Electricity Consumption and Emissions: 2019 vs. 2020

Despite the extraordinary circumstances of 2020, Türkiye’s overall electricity consumption remained nearly the same as in 2019. According to the analysis, while consumption levels were stable, electricity-related carbon emissions increased by 6 million tons, from 132 million tons in 2019 to 138 million tons in 2020. The emission factor also rose, reaching 0.451 kg CO₂/kWh.


Why Did Emissions Rise?

Türkiye’s electricity mix has historically relied heavily on lignite-fired power plants, which contribute significantly to both the emission factor and total emissions. In 2020, lignite use decreased, and electricity generation from renewables (wind, solar, geothermal) increased by 12% compared to 2019. Under normal conditions, this should have led to a reduction in total emissions.

However, due to reduced precipitation during certain periods of 2020, the share of hydropower plants (HPPs) in total generation declined. The resulting capacity gap was largely filled by natural gas combined-cycle power plants, whose generation increased by 22%. While natural gas plants emit less CO₂ per unit of electricity compared to coal-fired plants, their emissions are still significantly higher than those of renewable sources. This shift in the generation mix explains the increase in both the emission factor and total emissions.


Key Implications

The findings demonstrate that pandemic conditions did not reduce electricity-related carbon emissions in Türkiye. Instead, emissions increased due to the reduced contribution of hydropower and the compensating reliance on fossil-fuel power plants, particularly natural gas.

This highlights a structural vulnerability: as climate change causes reduced rainfall and hydrological variability, reliance on carbon-intensive thermal plants increases, thereby exacerbating the very problem it is supposed to mitigate.


Conclusion

The 2020 case clearly shows that climate change and emissions are interlinked in a reinforcing feedback loop: reduced hydropower due to changing climate leads to higher fossil fuel use, which in turn accelerates climate change.

Breaking this cycle requires urgent actions:


  • energy efficiency & management and demand-side management,

  • accelerated renewable energy investments, and

  • system-level energy transition strategies.

Frameworks such as the EU Green Deal (European Green Deal) can act as important drivers for Türkiye’s decarbonisation pathway.

Just like the COVID-19 virus is invisible to the naked eye, greenhouse gases are also unseen pollutants. Yet their impacts are tangible and intensifying. Without decisive action, even today’s renewable energy investments may prove insufficient in mitigating climate change.